💎 On the gap between experts’ confidence and the accuracy of their forecasts (they’re little better than coin tossers)

Philip Tetlock has done one of the most comprehensive studies of forecasters, their accuracy, and their excuses. When studying experts’ views on a wide range of world political events over a decade, he found that, across the vast array of predictions, experts who reported they had 80 percent or more confidence in their predictions were actually correct only around 45 percent of the time. Across all predictors, the experts were little better than coin tossers.

Excerpt from: The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How not to be your own worst enemy by James Montier